LAC
Lithium Americas Corp
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 2.55
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 2.37
Trim >=take some off
USD 3.50
Thesis breakA material delay to Thacker Pass first production beyond 2027 combined with a DO...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 26% | 100 / 100 | 26.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Thacker Pass Phase 1 construction accelerating toward mechanical completion in late 2027 with over 1,300 workers on site
- 2026 Capex guidance of $1.3 - 1.6 billion provided alongside secured financing including DOE ATVM loan advances
- Q2 2026 net income of $6.3 million versus prior year loss, with $1.3 billion total cash and restricted cash