JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 252.86
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 176.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 250.00
Thesis breakMaterial adverse outcome in oxybate patent or authorised-generic litigation that...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 11% | 100 / 100 | 11.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 38% | 10 / 100 | 3.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 46 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- Record 2025 revenues of $4.3B (+5% YoY) with 4Q25 at $1.2B (+10% YoY) and 2026 guidance of $4.25-4.50B
- Xywav achieved $1.7B revenue (+12% YoY) and Epidiolex $1.1B (+9% YoY) in 2025; Modeyso launch generated $37M in first full quarter
- Planned sBLA submission for zanidatamab in HER2+ 1L GEA under RTOR in 1Q26