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JHX

James Hardie Industries PLC

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 30.23 Basic Materials - Construction MaterialsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
45

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 30.23
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 24.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 32.00
Thesis breakA formal reduction in FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance, two consecutive quarters of...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case9%100 / 1009.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case40%10 / 1004.0
Weighted conviction45 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • AZEK acquisition cost synergies ahead of schedule with commercial synergies on track
  • Q4 and full year earnings exceeding guidance including Adj EBITDA of $381M and $1.27B respectively
  • FY27 outlook targeting 4-8% pro forma Adj EBITDA growth and free cash flow of $500M+
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.