IONQ
IONQ Inc
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 36.44
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 27.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 38.00
Thesis breakA material downward revision to 2026 revenue or RPO guidance, a dilutive equity ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 15% | 100 / 100 | 15.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 34% | 10 / 100 | 3.4 |
| Weighted conviction | 50 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Selected for DARPA's HARQ Program reflecting leadership in modular quantum computing and scalable networking
- Sold first 6th-generation chip-based 256-qubit system anchored by secure quantum network and broad IP-generation partnership
- Reported Q1 2026 GAAP revenue of $64.7M (755% YoY growth) exceeding guidance midpoint by 30% and raised full-year guidance to $260-270M