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IONQ

IONQ Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 44.43 Technology - Computer HardwareREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
44

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 44.43
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 28.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 42.00
Thesis breakA combination of SkyWater integration failure, a sharp deceleration in commercia...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case9%100 / 1009.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case42%10 / 1004.2
Weighted conviction44 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Closed acquisition of SkyWater Technology creating first vertically integrated full-stack quantum platform
  • Raised full year 2026 revenue guidance to $280-290 million with remaining performance obligations up 297% YoY
  • Record Q2 2026 GAAP revenues of $80.1 million representing 287% YoY growth driven by quantum computer deployments
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.