HUM
Humana Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 443.68
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 270.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 390.00
Thesis breakA material CMS Stars ratings downgrade, an adverse MA Final Rate Notice compress...
-
Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Q2 FY26 EPS beat of 7.61 vs estimate 7 with revenue of 40.87B
- Affirms FY 2026 individual Medicare Advantage membership growth of approximately 25 percent
- Sequential growth of 110500 patients or over 22 percent in CenterWell Senior Primary Care