LON:HSP
Hargreaves Services plc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
800.00p
Buy <=wait / entry
700.00p
Trim >=take some off
860.00p
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by a confirmed, material cut to Network Rail's r...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 33% | 100 / 100 | 33.0 |
| Base case | 48% | 62 / 100 | 29.8 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 65 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strong FY2026 earnings with revenue up 32.9% to GBP 351.4M and statutory PBT GBP 40.3M (highest in 12 years)
- Services division achieved visibility over >70% of next year's revenue via more than 75 term and framework agreements
- Hargreaves Land completed first renewable energy development site sales generating GBP 15.6M proceeds and GBP 20M capital return