LON:GFTU

Grafton Group Plc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-13 Market data 2 days old 1027.40p Industrials - Industrial - DistributionREDUCE ZONE

ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed

Position levels

Currenttoday

1027.40p

Buy <=wait / entry

860.00p

Trim >=take some off

1020.00p

Thesis breakA formal suspension of the buyback programme, Mercaluz integration failing to de...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	32%	100 / 100	32.0
Base case	49%	62 / 100	30.4
Bear case	19%	10 / 100	1.9
Weighted conviction			64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

M&A activity: Acquisition of Mercaluz (Spanish air conditioning distributor) in May 2026
Earnings and guidance changes: Q4 earnings showed 10.4% revenue growth to GBP 2.52bn and adjusted operating profit up 6.2%; CMD 2026 targets >10% EPS CAGR and 13% ROCE by 2030
Share buybacks: GBP 25m buyback scheme executed with 13,329 shares acquired; shares reduced by over a fifth since 2022

Read full report →

Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.