GL9
Glanbia plc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
EUR 19.37
Buy <=wait / entry
EUR 16.17
Trim >=take some off
EUR 20.50
Thesis breakA cut to the upgraded 17-20% adjusted EPS growth guidance, a publicly disclosed ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 47% | 100 / 100 | 47.0 |
| Base case | 48% | 62 / 100 | 29.8 |
| Bear case | 5% | 10 / 100 | 0.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 77 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: Glanbia agrees to acquire Flavor Producers for $300 million
- Earnings and guidance changes: H1 2026 adjusted EPS up 30% to $0.8124 with full-year guidance upgraded to 17%-20% constant currency growth
- EUR 100 million share buybacks completed alongside 10% interim dividend increase