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F

Ford Motor Co

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 13.98 Consumer Cyclical - Auto - ManufacturersAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
56

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 13.98
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 11.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 14.00
Thesis breakA second consecutive quarterly earnings miss combined with widening Model e loss...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case23%100 / 10023.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case28%10 / 1002.8
Weighted conviction56 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 earnings beat with adjusted EPS 42 cents vs 35 cents expected and raised 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10-11 billion
  • Raised 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6-7 billion including earlier $500 million tariff recovery
  • F-Series recovery cited as on track with operational improvements and resilient pricing
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.