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F

Ford Motor Co

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 14.68 Consumer Cyclical - Auto - ManufacturersAWAIT ENTRY
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Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 14.68
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 11.83
Trim >=take some off
USD 15.50
Thesis breakA second large impairment of the Model e electric vehicle programme on top of th...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case21%100 / 10021.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case29%10 / 1002.9
Weighted conviction55 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Ford raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10-11 billion and adjusted free cash flow to $6-7 billion after Q2 earnings beat
  • Q2 adjusted EPS of 42 cents beat estimates of 35 cents despite automotive revenue miss
  • F-Series recovery cited as on track with operational improvements and resilient pricing
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.