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FLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 25.31 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
66

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 25.31
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 21.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 35.00
Thesis breakA material cut to 2026 revenue below the USD420-450 million guidance range, the ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction66 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • NASA MoonFall program win and Lockheed Martin multi-launch agreement extension through 2031 driving $1.5B backlog
  • $94M U.S. Space Force contract awarded to SciTec for ground-based radar digitization
  • Acquisition of Space-ng for AI-powered vision navigation integration
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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