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FLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 20.33 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 20.33
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 14.83
Trim >=take some off
USD 22.50
Thesis breakA material launch failure on Alpha or Blue Ghost, loss of a substantive portion ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case26%100 / 10026.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Firefly awarded significant contract as part of $981 million Space Force IDIQ initiative
  • Awarded $144M NASA contract for 2028 Moon missions
  • Q1 2026 EPS beat (+$0.05 to -$0.46) and revenue beat (+$3.80M to $80.88M)
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.