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FLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-09 Data 34 days old USD 26.71 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 26.71
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 20.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 34.00
Thesis breakA covenant event tied to disclosed indebtedness, a slip on a flagship NASA CLPS ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Significant NASA contract wins
  • Q1 2026 earnings beat with actual EPS -$0.46 vs consensus -$0.52 and revenue $80.88M vs $77.08M
  • Moderate Buy consensus rating from 12 analysts with average price target $40.64
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.