LON:FNTL
Fintel PLC
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
196.00p
Buy <=wait / entry
165.00p
Trim >=take some off
215.00p
Thesis breakA profit warning from Fintel PLC, a sustained drop in UK mortgage transaction vo...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- UK mortgage market cyclicality (HIGH) directly exposed to residential transaction volumes and adviser activity
- AIM liquidity and investor base (HIGH) creating structural discount and reduced institutional coverage
- EPS projections showing modest growth from 0.09 in 2021 to 0.16 projected for 2026 with flat periods