LLY
Eli Lilly And Co
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 1148.84
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 940.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 1180.00
Thesis breakA confirmed Phase III failure in a major obesity, cardiovascular outcomes, or Al...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 44% | 100 / 100 | 44.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 5% | 10 / 100 | 0.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 76 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity expanding neuroscience pipeline via AtaiBeckley and Centessa Pharmaceuticals acquisitions
- Q1 2026 EPS beat of $8.55 vs $6.85 estimate (+24.82%) with strong sequential revenue growth to $19,799M
- Positive TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3 trial results showing up to 20.8% weight loss in obesity patients