LLY
Eli Lilly And Co
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 1185.71
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 973.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 1180.00
Thesis breakA confirmed material failure of a late-stage pipeline asset in oncology, immunol...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 18% | 10 / 100 | 1.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity including acquisition of psychedelics drugmaker in July and plans to purchase three vaccine makers in May
- Raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $85-87 billion and underlying non-GAAP EPS by $2.78 at midpoint
- FDA approval of Ebglyss, European Commission approval of Jaypirca, and U.S. submission for orforglipron