Coverage / C43 / Trade Card

C43

Cosmo Pharmaceuticals NV

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-08-08 Market data as of 2026-11-13 Market data 2 days old EUR 62.50 Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
EUR 62.50
Buy <=wait / entry
EUR 61.67
Trim >=take some off
EUR 75.00
Thesis breakA confirmed failure of Clascoterone to progress against its next regulatory mile...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case26%100 / 10026.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Recurring revenues from Winlevi up 38%, Lialda up 35%, and CDMO up 14% year-over-year in H1 2026
  • 2026 guidance for recurring revenues EUR 98-102M, total revenues EUR 105-110M, and EBITDA EUR 10.5-13.5M with double-digit growth
  • Clascoterone 5% topical solution Phase III data supporting chronic use with regulatory submissions underway in US and Europe
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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