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CEG

Constellation Energy Corp

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 277.37 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
73

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 277.37
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 246.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 300.00
Thesis breakA material cut to the raised 2026 EPS guidance below the $11.50 low end of the c...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case8%10 / 1000.8
Weighted conviction73 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Walmart long-term 15-year agreements for 176 MW emissions-free power from Dresden Clean Energy Center starting 2029/2030
  • $22B Calpine merger completed January 2026
  • Raised 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance to $11.50 - $12.50 midpoint $12.00 on Calpine accretion and PJM capacity prices
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.