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COP

ConocoPhillips

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 130.11 Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
62

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 130.11
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 109.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 138.00
Thesis breakA confirmed credit rating downgrade by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch on ConocoPhillips ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case30%100 / 10030.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case21%10 / 1002.1
Weighted conviction62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Strong Q2 2026 reported EPS of $3.23 and adjusted EPS of $3.24 with $7.2 billion cash from operations
  • Doubled share repurchases driving $3.0 billion total shareholder distributions, on track for 45% CFO return in 2026
  • Reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance including production of 2.33-2.36 MMBOED and Q3 production guidance of 2.29-2.32 MMBOED
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.