COP
ConocoPhillips
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 120.48
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 104.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 128.00
Thesis breakA regulatory block on the bp acquisition, a dividend cut, or Brent sustaining be...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 36% | 100 / 100 | 36.0 |
| Base case | 48% | 62 / 100 | 29.8 |
| Bear case | 16% | 10 / 100 | 1.6 |
| Weighted conviction | 67 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: agreement to acquire 42% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BP ECKL) with bp
- Earnings and guidance changes: Q1 2026 reported EPS $1.78 and adjusted EPS $1.89, cash from operations $5.4B, updated full-year production and capital guidance
- Quarterly dividend declaration of $0.84 per share