COHR
Coherent Corp
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 232.08
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 238.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 345.00
Thesis breakThe investment thesis would be invalidated by the loss of the named NVIDIA multi...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 26% | 100 / 100 | 26.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 22% | 10 / 100 | 2.2 |
| Weighted conviction | 60 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Multiyear strategic partnership and supply agreement with NVIDIA to develop optics technology for next-generation data center architecture
- Q4 2026 earnings beat with actual EPS $1.74 vs estimates of $1.58-$1.62 and revenue guidance above consensus at $1.91B-$2.05B midpoint
- PhotonLink integrated optics platform backed by customer deals and capacity expansion with revenue ramp guided from Q4 2026