COHR
Coherent Corp
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 262.89
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 191.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 255.00
Thesis breakTwo consecutive quarters of negative or flat datacom segment growth, a non-GAAP ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 13% | 100 / 100 | 13.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 38% | 10 / 100 | 3.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 47 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- Multiple consecutive earnings beats including Q3 2026 actual EPS $1.41 vs $1.36 est (+3.68%) and prior quarter beats of 13-19%
- Explicit AI/ML demand growth in Datacenter & Communications segment with protocol-agnostic transceivers and vertical integration across GaAs/InP components
- Analyst price target raises to $400-$465 with majority Buy ratings citing AI infrastructure and supply chain tailwinds