NYSE:CVX
Chevron Corp
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 196.83
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 175.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 210.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by a sustained move in Brent below $60 per barre...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 29% | 100 / 100 | 29.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 21% | 10 / 100 | 2.1 |
| Weighted conviction | 62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Production increases to record levels with 15-24% YoY growth in Q1 2026 and 12-16% in 2025
- Strong Q2 earnings beat with adjusted earnings of $12.0B vs $5.55 expected and revenue up 57.4%
- Consistent shareholder returns including $6.0B cash returned in Q1 2026 and 4% dividend increase to $1.78