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LON:CAML

Central Asia Metals PLC

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-13 Market data 2 days old 128.47p Basic Materials - CopperIN BUY ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
128.47p
Buy <=wait / entry
131.67p
Trim >=take some off
175.00p
Thesis breakA failed or materially adverse revision to the Cygnus acquisition, a sustained c...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • M&A activity: all-scrip acquisition of Cygnus Metals for AUD 232 million at 60% premium, adding Chibougamau copper-gold project in Qu?bec
  • Earnings and guidance: revenue rose 7% YoY to $230M with $102M EBITDA at 44% margin; strong Q4 production and 2026 guidance reiterated
  • Dividend: forward dividend yield 10.10% with GBp 0.08 cash dividend
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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