CAT
Caterpillar Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 802.46
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 723.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 890.00
Thesis breakA material reduction in the disclosed order backlog below approximately USD60 bi...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 40% | 100 / 100 | 40.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 8% | 10 / 100 | 0.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 73 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strategic alliance and purchase agreement with AIP Corp for 2 GW of fast-response natural gas generator sets delivering power to hyperscale AI data centers starting 2026
- Record Q2 2026 earnings with revenue $20.5B (+24% YoY) and adjusted EPS $8.17 beating estimates, plus raised full-year guidance to mid-to-high-teens revenue growth
- Order backlog surged to $72B (+92% YoY) with 59% deliverable in next 12 months, largest increase in Power & Energy segment