CAH
Cardinal Health, Inc
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 230.03
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 191.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 245.00
Thesis breakCardinal Health cuts fiscal EPS guidance, discloses a lost or materially reprice...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 18% | 10 / 100 | 1.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: definitive agreements to acquire majority stake in GI Alliance for ~$2.8B cash (71% ownership) and Advanced Diabetes Supply Group to accelerate growth strategies
- M&A activity: agreements to acquire AdaptHealth's Diabetes Health business and Strive Medical for combined ~$360M cash
- Earnings or guidance changes: raised fiscal 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance to $10.70-$10.80 range after Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $3.17 (+35% YoY) and operating earnings of $956M (+18%)