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COF

Capital One Financial Corp

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 216.12 Financial Services - Financial - Credit ServicesAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
65

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 216.12
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 186.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 230.00
Thesis breakA formal Federal Reserve or OCC action imposing material capital restrictions on...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction65 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Discover integration progressing with debit conversion complete and $2.5 billion synergies targeted by mid-2027
  • Q1-2026 adjusted EPS of $4.42 with domestic card delinquencies improving YoY and auto charge-offs near pre-pandemic levels
  • $2.5 billion stock repurchase executed in Q1-2026 alongside CET1 ratio of 14.4%
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.