LON:CMCL
Caledonia Mining Corporation PLC
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
1624.00p
Buy <=wait / entry
1366.67p
Trim >=take some off
1900.00p
Thesis breakA material adverse amendment to Zimbabwe's Indigenisation and Economic Empowerme...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q1 2026 revenue of $66.43 million (18.3% YoY growth) and EBITDA of $33.87 million (50.2% growth); 2024 net profit $17.9 million turnaround with record Q2 2025 production
- Macro or sector drivers: Gold mining sector booming in 2025 with record gold prices; 23% increase in average realized gold price to $2,347/oz
- Material risk from SEC filing disclosures: Zimbabwe country risk (HIGH) including Indigenisation Act requiring majority indigenous ownership and unpredictable political environment