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NYSE:AI

C3.ai Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-10-04 Data 8 days old USD 11.01 Basic Materials - Chemicals - SpecialtyREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
46

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 11.01
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 7.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 10.00
Thesis breakLoss of the disclosed US Department of Defence contract, a restated or withdrawn...
-

Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case12%100 / 10012.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case40%10 / 1004.0
Weighted conviction46 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • FY2026 revenue contraction of -35.7% YoY to $250.27m driven by shift to consumption-based partner-led model
  • $500 million five-year DoD Production-Other Transaction Agreement providing defense contract momentum
  • Q4 2026 EPS beat of -$0.33 vs -$0.38 estimate but revenue miss of $51.6m vs $51.75m estimate
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.