BKSY
Blacksky Technology Inc
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 23.05
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 17.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 26.00
Thesis breakLoss of a named defence contract, a cut to 2026 service-revenue guidance, or a p...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 24% | 10 / 100 | 2.4 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- $25 million multi-year subscription contract with major international Ministry of Defense for 35cm imagery and AI analytics
- Up to $160 million in new contract wins including $60 million Gen-3 satellite pilots converting to long-term subscriptions
- Full-year 2026 guidance raised with revenue target $120 - $145 million and adjusted EBITDA $6 - $18 million