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BIRG

Bank of Ireland Group plc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-11-14 Market data as of 2026-11-13 Market data 2 days old EUR 19.20 Financial Services - Banks - RegionalAWAIT ENTRY
BLOCKED - NOT ACTIONABLEMethodology gate: buy_preconditions_failed
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
EUR 19.20
Buy <=wait / entry
EUR 16.65
Trim >=take some off
EUR 20.75
Thesis breakA formal suspension of capital distributions because of capital weakness, or rep...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case10%10 / 1001.0
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Upgraded NII guidance to ~EUR 3.4bn for 2026, >EUR 3.6bn for 2027 and >EUR 3.85bn for 2028
  • EUR 1.2 billion 2025 shareholder distribution comprising EUR 0.70 ordinary dividend and EUR 530 million share buyback
  • Irish loans and deposits rose 6%, group fee income up 7%, AUM hit record EUR 60 billion
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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