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ATI

ATI Inc

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 190.16 Industrials - Manufacturing - Metal FabricationAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
66

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 190.16
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 165.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 215.00
Thesis breakLoss of the BWXT defence contract relationship, full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guid...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction66 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Five-year strategic material supply agreement with BWXT through 2030 supporting U.S. Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program
  • Raising full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,010M-$1,060M and adjusted free cash flow guidance to $550M-$600M
  • Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.00 (up 39% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1% (up 310 bps YoY) driven by aerospace & defense demand
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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