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ASML

ASML Holding NV

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 1788.18 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
73

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 1788.18
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 1500.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 1900.00
Thesis breakA confirmed cancellation or multi-quarter deferral of EUV orders by a named lead...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case8%10 / 1000.8
Weighted conviction73 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Strategic partnership with Tata Electronics to advance semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in India
  • High NA EUV reaches new readiness milestone with first high-volume Logic product
  • Q2 2026 total net sales EUR 9.3 billion exceeding guidance driven by EUR 3.8 billion EUV system sales
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.