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ASML

ASML Holding NV

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-10-04 Data 8 days old USD 1867.31 Technology - SemiconductorsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
51

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 1867.31
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 1416.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 1950.00
Thesis breakA formal downgrade of full-year 2026 net sales guidance back toward the lower EUR 3...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case15%100 / 10015.0
Base case53%62 / 10032.9
Bear case32%10 / 1003.2
Weighted conviction51 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Partnership with Tata Electronics to strengthen India semiconductor manufacturing capability
  • Raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance to EUR43-45 billion after Q1 and Q2 beats
  • Q2 2026 net sales EUR9.3 billion exceeding guidance driven by EUR3.8 billion EUV system sales
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.