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ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-09 Data 34 days old USD 76.59 Consumer Defensive - Agricultural Farm ProductsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 76.59
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 66.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 82.00
Thesis breakA cut to FY 2026 earnings guidance at the next quarterly print, an extended outa...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case32%100 / 10032.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Acquisition of UK-based FDL to boost nutrition business
  • Raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70 from prior $3.60-$4.25
  • Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.71 beat consensus estimate of $0.66
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.