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ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 79.27 Consumer Defensive - Agricultural Farm ProductsAWAIT ENTRY
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 79.27
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 66.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 82.00
Thesis breakA disclosed material cybersecurity incident causing operational disruption, or a...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70 from prior $3.60-$4.25 range
  • Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.71 beating consensus estimate of $0.66
  • Biofuels policy clarity via 2026-2027 RVO finalization expected to improve crushing and ethanol results
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.