ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 6.26
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 4.83
Trim >=take some off
USD 7.50
Thesis breakA material slip in Midnight type certification beyond 2028 combined with a disco...
-
Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 19% | 100 / 100 | 19.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 32% | 10 / 100 | 3.2 |
| Weighted conviction | 53 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: Acquisition of Boeing's Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid subsidiaries with Boeing taking ownership stake
- Government or defence contract momentum: New autonomous VTOL platform with Anduril including Thunder defense variant
- Strategic partnership: Halo hybrid-electric VTOL with Marubeni Aerospace in Japan