APP

Applovin Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 393.68 Technology - Software - ApplicationREDUCE ZONE

ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed

Position levels

Currenttoday

USD 393.68

Buy <=wait / entry

USD 223.33

Trim >=take some off

USD 310.00

Thesis breakA Q3 2026 revenue print materially below the guided USD 2.055 - 2.085 billion ra...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	24%	100 / 100	24.0
Base case	49%	62 / 100	30.4
Bear case	27%	10 / 100	2.7
Weighted conviction			57 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

Q2 2026 revenue of $1,924M (+53% YoY) and net income of $1,267M (+55% YoY) with EPS beat at $3.76
Repurchase of 1.1 million shares for $551.3 million in Q2 2026
Consensus analyst Buy rating with average price target of 497.05

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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.