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AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 52.85 Technology - SemiconductorsIN BUY ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
53

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 52.85
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 80.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 130.00
Thesis breakDisclosure of a major hyperscale customer cancellation or material push-out of 8...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case19%100 / 10019.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case32%10 / 1003.2
Weighted conviction53 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • New 800G hyperscale order win tied to AI data center demand
  • Fifth consecutive quarter of record revenue with 800G and 1.6T product cycles driving ramp
  • Acquisition of Houston facility for offices, warehouse and light manufacturing
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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