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AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 135.63 Technology - SemiconductorsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
53

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 135.63
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 78.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 145.00
Thesis breakDisclosure of a material order cancellation, share loss, or pricing concession b...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case19%100 / 10019.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case32%10 / 1003.2
Weighted conviction53 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 EPS beat of $0.06 vs $0.01-$0.02 estimates (+500% surprise) with revenue up 86.3% YoY to $191.92M
  • Strategic partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft for 400G+ interconnects and CATV amplifiers
  • Next earnings Nov 5 2026 with analyst EPS estimate of $0.27
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.