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AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 94.32 Technology - SemiconductorsAWAIT ENTRY
51

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 94.32
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 59.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 98.00
Thesis breakA confirmed, material reduction in orders from a named major hyperscale or CATV ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case17%100 / 10017.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case33%10 / 1003.3
Weighted conviction51 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Manufacturing expansion for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers at new Texas facilities
  • Q1 2026 EPS miss of -$0.07 vs. est -$0.06
  • Vertically integrated model with customer relationships to Amazon and Microsoft
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.