AWR
American States Water Co
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 87.39
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 79.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 90.00
Thesis breakAn adverse California Public Utilities Commission rate-case decision that materi...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 16% | 100 / 100 | 16.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 33% | 10 / 100 | 3.3 |
| Weighted conviction | 51 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Q2 2026 EPS beat expectations by $0.17 with 25% surge
- ASUS segment military base water/wastewater contracts with annual price adjustments
- Analyst consensus Hold rating and $77.00 average 12-month price target implying -11.89% downside