AIG
American International Group Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 76.93
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 72.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 86.00
Thesis breakA formal adverse regulatory action under US state insurance laws or GCC provisio...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 37% | 100 / 100 | 37.0 |
| Base case | 47% | 62 / 100 | 29.1 |
| Bear case | 16% | 10 / 100 | 1.6 |
| Weighted conviction | 68 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- AIG's 14.3% annualized dividend increase paired with stronger 2026 earnings guidance
- Q2 2026 results with EPS of $1.79 (+26.1% YoY), revenue of $7.08B (+6.5%), and net premiums written up 9%
- Strategic partnership committing up to $3.5 billion with CVC across credit strategies and private equity secondaries