Coverage / AXP / Trade Card

AXP

American Express Co

BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 336.25 Financial Services - Financial - Credit ServicesAWAIT ENTRY
72

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 336.25
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 288.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 345.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would invalidate if American Express cuts 2026 EPS guidance below the...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case10%10 / 1001.0
Weighted conviction72 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Extended partnerships with NFL and NBA
  • New ABA Card Partnership with American Bar Association for small business card
  • Q1 2026 revenues net of interest expense up 11% to $18.9B and EPS up 18% to $4.28 with guidance reaffirmed
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.