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AMBA

Ambarella Inc

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 70.63 Technology - SemiconductorsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
69

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 70.63
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 60.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 82.00
Thesis breakDisclosure of a material slip or loss of the Hanwha agreement, fiscal 2027 reven...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case36%100 / 10036.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case12%10 / 1001.2
Weighted conviction69 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • $800M+ decade-plus Hanwha edge AI supply agreement
  • Q3 2026 EPS beat of 28.57% ($0.27 vs $0.21) and record $108.5M revenue
  • Raised fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to 36-38%
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.