ALM
Almonty Industries Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 7.63
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 8.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 14.00
Thesis breakA sustained Sangdong production shortfall versus contracted volumes, a named off...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 18% | 10 / 100 | 1.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Extended offtake agreement and expanded supply agreement with Global Tungsten for increased production
- Sangdong mine moving into commercial operation with multiple supply agreements
- Q2 FY26 revenue of 42.99M (+498% YoY) and earnings of 181.8M with 422.89% profit margin