ALL

Allstate Corp

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-28 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 266.69 Financial Services - Insurance - Property & CasualtyAWAIT ENTRY

ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed

Position levels

Currenttoday

USD 266.69

Buy <=wait / entry

USD 220.00

Trim >=take some off

USD 290.00

Thesis breakSustained underwriting-margin deterioration, adverse reserve development or cata...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	36%	100 / 100	36.0
Base case	48%	62 / 100	29.8
Bear case	16%	10 / 100	1.6
Weighted conviction			67 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

Q2 FY26 earnings beat with actual EPS +8.99 vs estimate +6.07 and revenue 18.6B
HSBC upgrade to Buy from Hold with price target $266
September 2026 estimated catastrophe losses of $220 million pre-tax

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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.