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ALLE

Allegion PLC

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 157.40 Industrials - Security & Protection ServicesAWAIT ENTRY
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 157.40
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 134.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 168.00
Thesis breakA clear negative revision to FY 2026 revenue or EPS guidance, evidence of materi...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case32%100 / 10032.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • M&A activity including ELATEC acquisition and $631.6 million total spend in 2025
  • Q1 2026 revenues of $1,033.6 million up 9.7% reported with FY-2026 organic outlook affirmed
  • 2026 full-year reported revenue guidance of 5% to 7%
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