ALLE
Allegion PLC
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 157.40
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 134.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 168.00
Thesis breakA clear negative revision to FY 2026 revenue or EPS guidance, evidence of materi...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 32% | 100 / 100 | 32.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity including ELATEC acquisition and $631.6 million total spend in 2025
- Q1 2026 revenues of $1,033.6 million up 9.7% reported with FY-2026 organic outlook affirmed
- 2026 full-year reported revenue guidance of 5% to 7%