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ALLE

Allegion PLC

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 190.07 Industrials - Security & Protection ServicesREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
65

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 190.07
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 140.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 165.00
Thesis breakA material margin contraction driven by sustained raw material and electronic co...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction65 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • M&A activity: Acquisition of RFID leader ELATEC in EUR 330M cash-free debt-free deal
  • Earnings and guidance changes: Q4/FY2025 revenues up 7.8% reported (4.1% organic), adjusted EPS up 8.1% to $8.14, with 2026 full-year reported revenue growth outlook of 5-7%
  • Earnings and guidance changes: Operating margin expansion to 21.1% (adjusted 23.2%) and available cash flow up 17.6% to $685.7M in 2025
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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