Coverage / BABA / Trade Card

BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 122.25 Consumer Cyclical - Specialty RetailAWAIT ENTRY
55

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 122.25
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 100.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 130.00
Thesis breakA fresh PRC regulatory action against the group, an SEC-driven ADR delisting det...
-

Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case23%100 / 10023.0
Base case47%62 / 10029.1
Bear case30%10 / 1003.0
Weighted conviction55 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • DOJ non-prosecution agreement resolving legal overhang for $600M cash cost
  • Reported -89.2% EPS surprise and -1.5% revenue surprise versus analyst forecasts
  • PRC regulatory interference risk including potential repeat antitrust actions
Read full report →

Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.