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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 128.41 Consumer Cyclical - Specialty RetailAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 128.41
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 110.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 140.00
Thesis breakA new formal PRC antitrust or data compliance action against Alibaba's core comm...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case32%100 / 10032.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • $600M non-prosecution deal with U.S. Department of Justice
  • Ant Group $73.6M Zeroth robotics funding
  • Planned Eli Lilly orforglipron partnership
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.