AA
Alcoa Corp
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 45.26
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 38.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 48.00
Thesis breakFailure to close the South32 aluminium acquisition on the announced terms, or a ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 32% | 100 / 100 | 32.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: Announced acquisition of South32 Limited bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets for $4.1 billion cash and stock plus up to $750 million contingent value right
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q2 2026 EPS of $2.12 missed consensus estimate of $2.35 by 9.79%, though up from $0.39 YoY; next report expected 10/21/2026 with $2.27 estimate
- Progress on smelter capacity restarts and record quarterly revenue reported in Q2 2026