AA
Alcoa Corp
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 50.32
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 39.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 54.00
Thesis breakA failure to close the South32 aluminium assets acquisition on the disclosed USD...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 32% | 100 / 100 | 32.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: agreement to acquire South32 aluminum assets in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa for up to $5.6 billion
- Earnings and guidance changes: Q2 2026 EPS of $2.12 missed consensus $2.24 and revenue of $3.97B missed $4.12B due to Cyclone Narelle impact on Pinjarra refinery
- Labor agreement ratified at U.S. smelters covering 965 employees through 2030