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AA

Alcoa Corp

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 40.45 Basic Materials - AluminumAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
65

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 40.45
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 33.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 45.00
Thesis breakA confirmed slip in the San Ciprian restart that prevents the smelter from offse...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction65 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • M&A activity: completed senior-notes offering to fund acquisition of bauxite, alumina and aluminum-smelting assets
  • Strong Q4 and FY2025 results with revenue up 15% sequentially to $3.449B and adjusted EBITDA excluding special items up to $546M
  • Ratification of new four-year labor agreement with United Steelworkers covering 965 employees at U.S. smelters
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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