ALB
Albemarle Corp
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 104.59
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 89.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 112.00
Thesis breakA sustained lithium price decline through 2026 that pushes trailing EPS below cu...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Q2 FY26 earnings beat with adjusted EPS $3.75 vs $3.24 estimate and revenue $1.74B
- Appointment of Ragnar Udd as President and CEO effective February 1, 2027
- Sale of controlling stake in Ketjen completed in March 2026 with $1.3B debt repayment