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LON:AIBG

AIB Group plc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old 928.00p Financial Services - Banks - RegionalAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
47

Position levels

Currenttoday
928.00p
Buy <=wait / entry
796.67p
Trim >=take some off
950.00p
Thesis breakMaterial Irish housing correction triggering a step-change in loan-loss charges ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case12%100 / 10012.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case37%10 / 1003.7
Weighted conviction47 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Recent quarterly EPS and revenue beats including 9.16% EPS surprise in Jul 2026
  • H1 2026 profit after tax of EUR 939 million and return on tangible equity of 23.2%
  • Market share leadership with approximately 33% Irish residential mortgage market and over 40% SME lending
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.