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AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc.

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 192.97 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
73

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 192.97
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 171.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 235.00
Thesis breakA material slip in the Locust contract or a major counter-UAS award loss to a co...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case8%10 / 1000.8
Weighted conviction73 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • $117.3 million U.S. Army production contract for 82 P550 eVTOL UAS under Long Range Reconnaissance program
  • $400 million and $500 million U.S. Army contracts for Locust laser counter-drone systems
  • Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems award supporting Domestic Shield Program
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.