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AER

AerCap Holdings N.V.

BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 150.90 Industrials - Rental & Leasing ServicesAWAIT ENTRY
73

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 150.90
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 128.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 162.00
Thesis breakA material walk-back of the raised $16.80 2026 EPS guidance, a sanctions event s...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case8%10 / 1000.8
Weighted conviction73 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • AerCap order for 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners
  • Lease agreements with China Southern Group for three Boeing 777-300ERSF converted freighters and with Ethiopian Airlines
  • Raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $16.80 following record Q2 2026 results
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.