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AER

AerCap Holdings N.V.

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 175.99 Industrials - Rental & Leasing ServicesREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
77

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 175.99
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 128.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 165.00
Thesis breakA cut to 2026 EPS guidance, a material airline counterparty default disclosed in...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case47%100 / 10047.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case5%10 / 1000.5
Weighted conviction77 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 FY26 earnings beat with actual +5.14 vs estimate +4.14 and adjusted net income of $811 million
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to approximately $16.80 following Q2 results
  • New $1.0 billion share repurchase program announced alongside Q1 2026 results
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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