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AER

AerCap Holdings N.V.

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 147.44 Industrials - Rental & Leasing ServicesAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
77

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 147.44
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 126.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 162.00
Thesis breakA formal restructuring of a top-tier airline counterparty with material outstand...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case47%100 / 10047.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case5%10 / 1000.5
Weighted conviction77 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Raising full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $16.80
  • New $1.0 billion share repurchase program announced
  • Record adjusted net income of $889 million ($5.39 per share) in Q1 2026 and $811 million ($5.14 per share) in Q2 2026
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.