AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 483.36
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 343.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 470.00
Thesis breakA disclosed loss or material reduction of a named hyperscaler AI accelerator com...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 13% | 100 / 100 | 13.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 38% | 10 / 100 | 3.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 47 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- Meta $60 billion AI chip supply agreement over five years
- Expanded strategic partnership with Meta for 6-gigawatt AI infrastructure deployment
- Q1 2026 revenue of $10.3 billion with Data Center as primary growth driver