ADBE
Adobe Inc
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 250.41
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 228.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 285.00
Thesis breakConfirmation that ARR growth has decelerated below the 10% FY2026 revenue guide,...
-
Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 33% | 100 / 100 | 33.0 |
| Base case | 48% | 62 / 100 | 29.8 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 65 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: definitive agreement to acquire Topaz Labs and Semrush Holdings with expected close in first half of 2026
- Strategic licensing and partnerships: new agency and technology partnerships announced June 22 2026 to accelerate Agentic AI adoption
- Earnings beat: Q2 2026 EPS of $5.96 vs estimate $5.60 representing 6.43% beat