CNSX:VSBY

CNSX:VSBY - VSBLTY Groupe Technologies Corp

AVOID [CAP] SPECULATIVE BUY?AVOIDAWAIT ENTRY2026-08-14Data 29 days oldCAD 0.13

Conviction

out of 100

Executive Summary

VSBLTY Groupe Technologies Corp (CNSX:VSBY) is a Canada-based software company that develops computer-vision and audience analytics modules for digital signage, retail media, and shopper-engagement applications. The company positions itself as a provider of interactive display and analytics software that allows retailers, brands, and venue operators to measure and influence consumer behaviour at the point of sale. Public revenue of $869,618 in the latest reported year was down 57.02% versus the prior year's $2.02 million, underscoring the early-stage and lumpy nature of the book.

The investment case rests on a small set of hard catalysts - a named defence-sector contract announced in April 2026 and a series of partnership and letter-of-intent announcements tied to the Burkhan group ecosystem - partially offset by an ongoing cease trade order and missing financial filings. The key near-term catalyst is the conversion of the April 2026 defence contract into recurring revenue, with the primary risk being further dilution or a delisting event if the cease trade order is not lifted. Speculative positioning is warranted only if the contract converts and financial visibility is restored.

SPECULATIVE BUY. Conviction Score: 49/100. The view would be upgraded to a higher tier on delivery of audited financials, the lifting of the cease trade order, and at least one quarter of contract-driven revenue tied to the defence award; it would be downgraded on a further cease trade extension, additional dilutive financings, or loss of the defence contract.

AVOID at 29/100. Not currently actionable.

AWAIT ENTRYAVOID · 29/100

Business Model

VSBLTY generates revenue primarily through software licensing, hardware-plus-software deployments, and project-based integration of its audience analytics and digital signage modules for retail, brand, and venue customers. The company describes its offering as a platform that sits on top of in-store displays to capture impression, engagement, and demographic data, then monetises those deployments through a mix of upfront hardware sales and recurring software licences. The investor relations page frames the use case around interactive shopper experiences driven by touch and computer-vision analytics.

The customer base is described in broad terms - retailers, brands, and venue operators - without a single disclosed anchor client accounting for a meaningful share of revenue. Public disclosures indicate that revenue is concentrated and project-driven: the latest reported revenue of $869,618 was down 57.02% year-on-year, which is consistent with a small, deployment-led book rather than a steady SaaS annuity. The absence of disclosed segment mix, churn figures, or contract durations in the available research means the revenue model is best described as early-stage and episodic.

There is no clearly evidenced competitive moat in the public data. The wider computer-vision and digital signage market is contested by larger retail-media platforms, point-of-sale analytics vendors, and in-house retail technology teams. VSBLTY's strategic positioning around partnerships with groups such as Al Jaber (via the board appointment of Ajmal Muhammad) and the Burkhan-related partnership announcements provides a potential channel into Middle East and defence-adjacent deployments, but these are at early stages and have not yet produced disclosed recurring revenue.

Financial Snapshot

Price

CAD 0.13

Market Cap

CAD 14.2m

52w High

CAD 0.21

52w Low

CAD 0.05

Distance from 52wH

-38.1%

Currency

CAD

Recent Catalysts

[April 2026] - VSBLTY announced a defence-sector contract that is the principal hard catalyst in the current thesis; delivery and revenue conversion are unconfirmed in the available research. Source: Company press release (referenced in research data).

[2026] - VSBLTY announced a partnership and letter-of-intent framework with entities linked to the Burkhan group, intended to support expansion into adjacent markets; conversion into binding contracts and revenue is unconfirmed. Source: Company press release (referenced in research data).

[2026] - VSBLTY appointed Ajmal Muhammad of Saudi Arabia to its board to represent Al Jaber Group and VSBLTY's interests in the Middle East, formalising the regional channel strategy. Source: LD Micro company profile news feed.

[2026-06-26] - Risk-monitoring work flagged the February 2026 trading reinstatement as a liquidity event without addressing the underlying -340% ROA and 0.05 current ratio, confirming that financial strain remains acute. Source: Public financial ratio commentary (referenced in research data).

[2026-05-07] - Insider purchase activity disclosed via third-party market commentary coincided with a 15% share price slide, leaving the timing of insider transactions at a loss; no insider buying has been confirmed since this date in the available research. Source: Simply Wall St news article (background only - no factual claim sourced to it).

Thesis Evaluation

Bull Case (16% weight)

The April 2026 defence contract converts into a multi-year, recurring revenue stream, the cease trade order is lifted, and audited financials demonstrate a stabilising cost base. Adjusted for the small share count and re-rating to a software peer multiple, the equity could plausibly reach CAD0.34 within 12 months, implying meaningful upside from the current CAD0.13.

Base Case (48% weight)

The defence contract is delivered in limited volume, partnership LOIs convert slowly, and the cease trade order is lifted but revenue growth remains modest given the 57.02% revenue contraction in the latest reported year. A status-quo outcome with moderate execution on the contract and partnerships supports a 12-month target of CAD0.17.

Bear Case (36% weight)

The cease trade order is extended, the defence contract fails to convert, repeated private placements and debt settlements continue to dilute equity, and the filing-disclosed -340% ROA and 0.05 current ratio culminate in a liquidity event. The equity re-tests lows consistent with the CAD0.05 prior trough, implying a downside target of CAD0.05.

Weighted conviction:Bull (16%) x 100 + Base (48%) x 62 + Bear (36%) x 10 = 29/100. AVOID.

Key Risks

Cease trade order and missing filings: An ongoing cease trade order restricts trading access for certain participants and the absence of up-to-date financial filings removes the primary valuation anchor for the equity. Estimated probability: 40%. Impact: severe.
Acute financial strain and insolvency risk: Filing-disclosed metrics of -340% ROA and a 0.05 current ratio indicate persistent negative interest coverage and minimal cash runway, raising the risk of a liquidity event or balance-sheet restructuring. Estimated probability: 35%. Impact: severe.
Contract and partnership non-conversion: The April 2026 defence contract and the Burkhan-related partnership announcements are at an early stage and may not convert into recurring revenue, leaving the catalyst framework without hard support. Estimated probability: 45%. Impact: moderate.
Recurring dilution from private placements and debt settlements: The available research notes repeated private placements and debt settlements, which have historically weighed on the share price and remain a continuing risk to per-share value. Estimated probability: 55%. Impact: moderate.
Revenue contraction and small revenue base: Public revenue of $869,618 in the latest reported year was down 57.02% year-on-year, signalling a fragile commercial base that is sensitive to the loss or delay of any single deployment. Estimated probability: 50%. Impact: moderate.
Micro-cap liquidity and delisting risk: As a micro-cap on the CNSX with a CAD0.13 share price well below the 52-week high of CAD0.21, the equity is vulnerable to thin liquidity, wide bid-ask spreads, and potential delisting if compliance conditions are not met. Estimated probability: 30%. Impact: severe.

Who Should Own It / Avoid It

Ideal for: Speculative, high-risk-tolerance investors who can tolerate a position that may be subject to a cease trade order, missing financial filings, and the possibility of further dilution; a minimum holding period of 12 - 24 months is appropriate given the time required to lift the cease trade, deliver the defence contract, and re-establish financial visibility. The position should be sized as a small portion of a diversified portfolio, consistent with the assigned Speculative Buy tier and a 49/100 conviction score.

Avoid if: Investors who require audited, current financial statements to underwrite a position, those with a low tolerance for dilution and balance-sheet risk, and any investor who would be forced to sell into a thin CNSX market during a cease trade event. Index-linked, income-oriented, and medium-term institutional mandates should not hold this name until the cease trade order is lifted and at least one full set of audited financials is published.

Recommendation

SPECULATIVE BUY - 49/100. The tier reflects a small number of named catalysts - chiefly the April 2026 defence contract and the Burkhan-related partnership announcements - weighed against an ongoing cease trade order, missing financial filings, and acute financial strain disclosed at the ratio level. An upgrade would require the lifting of the cease trade order, the publication of audited financials, and confirmation of contract-driven revenue tied to the defence award; a downgrade would follow any extension of the cease trade, an additional dilutive raise, or cancellation of the defence contract. At the current price of CAD0.13 the shares trade above our buy ceiling of CAD0.09: the thesis is credible but the price is not - new positions only below that level.

The probability-weighted value across our three scenarios is CAD0.15, 15% above the current price of CAD0.13 - the market has not yet priced our probability-weighted view. Levels below are derived from the scenario targets and probabilities above, not from percentage offsets to today's price.

BUY

below CAD0.09 - below this level the upside to the base-case target (CAD0.17) is at least 2x the downside to the bear case (CAD0.05), the minimum risk/reward we require before committing new capital.

HOLD

between CAD0.09 and CAD0.17 - the base case is not yet fully priced, so existing holders are paid to wait, but new money gets no margin of safety in this zone.

REDUCE

above CAD0.17 - at this level the base case is fully reflected in the price and anything beyond it is paying for a bull scenario we weight at 16%.

SELL

if the investment thesis would be invalidated by an extension of the cease trade order combined with failure to publish audited financials, loss of the April 2026 defence contract, or a dilutive raise that materially impairs the equity base, regardless of price - the bear target of CAD0.05 is the backstop, not an arbitrary percentage stop.

Conviction Trend

Latest conviction: 29/100. Trend versus prior report: Flat.

CONVICTION BUY (80+)BUY (65 - 79)OPP BUY (50 - 64)SPEC BUY (30 - 49)AVOID (0 - 29)

Report date	Conviction
2026-08-14	29
2026-07-25	29
2026-06-22	29

See the trade-card view →

Sources

Market data: DYOR HQ proprietary market data workflow.

Public sentiment and news flow: Public news flow was used to identify recent announcements, including company press releases, board appointment disclosures, and aggregator commentary on insider activity and revenue trends, with background context drawn from third-party financial data providers.

Primary source types: Company press releases, investor relations materials, regulatory announcements and cease trade disclosures, third-party financial data providers, and aggregator commentary used only for background context - with factual claims anchored to underlying company or regulatory sources where possible.

Key sources

Data correct as of 2026-08-14